Friday, August 1, 2008

Why Ron Herardian thinks Notes and Domino are obsolete


By Ron Herardian

We are, today, at the beginning of the next and last foreseeable disruptive shift in messaging and collaboration. This shift is the consolidation of small and medium enterprise systems onto Software as a Service (SaaS) offerings categorically enabled by Web 2.0 technologies such as AJAX. Large businesses in the US must stem rising costs for messaging and collaboration systems. Companies will either outsource these systems or undergo radical consolidation using more scalable, lower-cost products.

In 1995, I declared LAN-based email to be a dead technology, for which I was vilified by countless Lotus cc:Mail employees, customers, and colleagues. Of course I was exactly right. People simply refused to face reality and, rather than be inconvenienced by having to learn a new skill or technology, they preferred to believe in the tooth fairy, at least until reality caught up with them.

"In my view, the underlying economic model upon which distributed client/server systems were based back in the 1980s and 1990s is dead."

Now, I am saying that distributed client/server systems will be radically consolidated into ISP and ISP-like systems and that new economies of scale will define, and are already defining, the future of messaging and collaboration systems. What does this mean for Lotus Notes and Domino?

Notes and Domino can be accurately described, in my opinion, as a "legacy" technology. I fully expect a similar pattern of responses from people whose jobs depend on Lotus Notes and Domino followed by it inevitably, eventually, becoming undeniable that I was right.